The first results from the eNCA MarkData 2026 Local Government Elections poll land at 11am on Sunday, live on eNCA, giving South Africa’s six largest metropolitan economies their most detailed political market read of the election cycle.
The poll, led by the highly regarded pollster Dr Elsa Thirion Venter, is billed as the largest and most accurate political opinion poll covering the country’s six biggest metros: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini and Cape Town. A thousand meticulously selected respondents, representative in almost every measurable way, were polled face to face or telephonically on how they intended to vote on 4 November, which coalition partners and mayoral candidates they wanted and did not want, which party they considered most corrupt, and a range of other issues.
For parties, coalition negotiators and anyone with a stake in how metro governments will be constituted after 4 November, the findings carry real weight. The results are described as astounding, and together with certain high-profile events currently unfolding, they are expected to help steer South African politics in the medium term. Readers seeking detail on how the poll was built can consult the method article published elsewhere on the page.
The rollout follows a three-week release schedule, two metros at a time. Nelson Mandela Bay, serving Gqeberha, Kariega and surrounds, and Ekurhuleni, serving the East Rand, come first this Sunday, 11 October. Johannesburg and Cape Town follow on 18 October, with Tshwane, based in Pretoria, and eThekwini, covering Durban and surrounds, released on 25 October. On 1 November, three days before the elections, eNCA will publish polling on wider South African issues.
The choice of opening metros is not arbitrary, and the reasoning is largely competitive. Nelson Mandela Bay recorded the closest metro result in the country between the ANC and the DA across the 2016, 2021 and 2024 elections. The EFF made good inroads there in 2024, and the PA achieved its best 2024 result in the metro. It also hosts the most high-profile ward contest between the DA and the FF Plus in the country, with DJs Daron Mann of the DA and Renaldo Gouws of the FF Plus going head to head. Action SA parliamentary leader Athol Trollip, a former mayor of the metro, adds another layer of competition, while the townships have historically been ANC heartland territory.
Ekurhuleni, meanwhile, is normally the Gauteng metro where the ANC achieves its best result, and it was where the MK Party performed best in 2024. This time the metro features celebrity candidates such as Xolani Khumalo. It is the second most densely populated metro in Gauteng and the fourth most densely populated in South Africa. One neighbourhood to watch is Thembisa: if the ANC does better than expected there, it bodes well for its township results across Gauteng.
The broadcast itself will feature eNCA’s panel of experts announcing and interpreting the headline results, with the full results for each week’s two metros published on the website. For market watchers of South African politics, the sequencing matters as much as the numbers. The two metros released first are the ones where coalition arithmetic has historically been tightest and where smaller parties have made their strongest showings, making Sunday’s announcement the clearest early signal of how the contest for control of the country’s metro governments is shaping up. Whether the numbers confirm the tightest expectations in Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni may set the tone for everything that follows.