South African households weighing up their entertainment budgets face a shifting digital landscape. New forecasts show the country’s streaming market growing more slowly than those of Kenya and Nigeria, even as it remains the continent’s most established.
The projections, contained in the PricewaterhouseCoopers Africa Entertainment and Media Outlook 2026-2030, put South Africa’s over-the-top (OTT) video revenue on course for a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% through 2030. That compares with 15.9% in Kenya and 20.4% in Nigeria, a gap the report attributes largely to the different stages of development across the three markets.
For consumers, the choices ahead will be shaped by affordability. PwC notes that streaming subscriptions in South Africa compete for household spending with internet connectivity costs, traditional television and other digital entertainment platforms. “Consumers may cancel subscriptions, switch between services or opt for cheaper, advertising-supported packages as they balance entertainment spending against other expenses,” the outlook states. Streaming is gaining ground, but traditional television remains a significant part of the market, pointing to a gradual shift in viewing habits rather than a wholesale move to OTT.
Why does South Africa’s growth curve look flatter than its peers? “South Africa already has the largest and most established OTT market of the three countries. Its existing subscriber base means growth increasingly depends on attracting additional subscribers, retaining existing customers and persuading consumers to spend more, rather than building an audience from a smaller starting point. Kenya and Nigeria have greater scope to expand as digital consumption grows,” the outlook states.
Meanwhile, the broader entertainment and media industry in South Africa is expected to keep expanding. Total E&M revenue is forecast to rise from $16.6 billion (R301.8 billion) in 2025 to $19.4 billion (R352.4 billion) by 2030, a 3.2% compound annual growth rate. The country’s digital transition is taking place alongside an established traditional television sector, which is forecast to decline locally even as it continues growing in Kenya and Nigeria, albeit more slowly than OTT services.
Revenue per subscription tells a different story. By 2030, average annual OTT revenue per subscription is forecast to reach $76 in South Africa, well above $54 in Kenya and $42 in Nigeria, though still short of a global average expected to exceed $100. The relatively lower average revenue per subscription could, the report notes, provide scope for further subscriber growth locally, indicating potential room for expansion as digital audiences grow.
How quickly South Africans adopt data-intensive services such as streaming, gaming and connected television will depend on the availability, quality and affordability of internet access, according to PwC. On that front, the country is well positioned. 5G subscription penetration is forecast to reach 86.8% by 2030, ahead of Kenya at 51.6% and Nigeria at 35.3%. Fixed broadband is also growing faster than mobile services across all three markets, strengthening the infrastructure on which digital media consumption relies.
Nana Madikane, Africa technology, media and telecommunications industry leader at PwC, says expanding connectivity creates opportunities for E&M companies to reach more consumers and develop new revenue streams. “Africa’s E&M industry is entering an exciting new phase, but there is no single growth story across the continent. What connects them is the expanding digital audience,” she says. “As connectivity becomes faster, more reliable and more accessible, the opportunity is increasingly about how businesses use this growing connectivity to reach new consumers, expand their E&M offerings and unlock new revenue opportunities.”
For South African viewers, the picture that emerges is one of steady change rather than rapid transformation: a mature streaming market growing at a measured pace, shaped by what households can afford and how well they stay connected. Whether affordability keeps pace with connectivity may well decide how many South Africans can actually take part.