South Africa’s political polarisation score of -0.13, recorded in the latest 2025 figures from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, is more than a social curiosity. It is an economic asset, and one with direct implications for investors, operators and anyone weighing the country’s market risk.
V-Dem, an international research programme based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, places South Africa substantially below several of the world’s largest democracies and largest economies. The United States records a score of 2.30. Brazil sits at 3.22, India at 2.08, France at 1.43 and Germany at 0.19. South Africa’s -0.13 also sits below the global average of 0.29, ranking 100th among 172 countries when ordered from most to least politically polarised. The score is nonetheless higher than those of the United Kingdom at -0.28, Canada at -0.40, Australia at -1.16 and Botswana at -1.90.
Additional reference context is available at https://www.sagoodnews.co.za/south-africa-less-politically-polarised-than-most-other-countries/.
For market-watchers, the relevance lies in what the measure captures. V-Dem assesses the extent to which a society is divided into antagonistic political camps, and specifically whether political differences damage ordinary social relationships involving family, friends, colleagues and community organisations. The indicator asks whether supporters of opposing camps continue to interact in a friendly manner or whether those interactions turn hostile. It therefore distinguishes between a society in which people disagree strongly about politics and one in which disagreement breeds social antagonism, a distinction that matters for the stability of the environment in which businesses operate and capital is deployed.
The measurement itself rests on assessments by country experts rather than public opinion surveys. Experts score polarisation across five categories, ranging from zero, where supporters of opposing camps interact amicably, to four, where their interactions are hostile. V-Dem then combines these assessments through a statistical model into a standardised measure that permits comparison between countries and over time. Scores can be negative, with higher values indicating greater polarisation.
The historical trajectory adds weight to the current reading. In 1990, during the final years of apartheid, South Africa’s score stood at 2.20, reflecting the deep political antagonism of that period. The movement from that figure to today’s -0.13 represents a remarkable transformation, one that underpins the social stability on which economic activity, consumer markets and long-horizon investment decisions ultimately depend.
Meanwhile, the findings carry implications for how the country’s commercial and political climate is read from outside. South Africans, the data suggest, have much more in common than the country’s political rhetoric often implies. They share frustrations about the direction of the country, recognise their mutual dependence, and overwhelmingly favour cooperation and opportunities for improvement. Political disagreement persists, but that should not be confused with widespread hostility between ordinary citizens, a distinction that matters when assessing the social risk attached to operating in South African markets.
The V-Dem findings, together with polling by the IRR and the SRF, point to a society in which people get along well despite their political differences. That cohesion is an important national advantage, and one that deserves far more recognition than it currently receives, including in the assessments that shape capital flows and business confidence. The underlying full article is available at https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/south-africa-less-politically-polarised-than-most-other.
For investors and operators weighing South Africa’s risk profile, the message from the data is clear: the country’s social fabric is considerably more resilient than its often heated political discourse suggests. The open question is whether the models and risk assessments that guide capital allocation will price that in.