South Africa’s duty-free access to the United States market, already shrinking sharply, will end on 1 January 2027 after the Trump administration moved to withdraw the country from the African Growth and Opportunity Act. The decision lands on an export base that has fallen from about $4 billion in 2024 to $1.7 billion in 2025, according to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.
The announcement, made on Monday by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, also targets Rwanda, and follows a US government review that found both countries were engaging in practices inconsistent with the programme’s eligibility requirements. Greer cited “barriers that undermine American trade and investment and practices that pose a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests in the region.” Trump has notified Congress and both governments of his intention to remove them from the programme.
The commercial stakes are considerable, though the department sought to put them in context. AGOA exports represent about 1% of South Africa’s total exports worldwide, and the share of shipments to the US receiving AGOA preferences fell from 28% to roughly 10% between 2024 and 2025. By 2025, about 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary World Trade Organisation most-favoured-nation terms. The department said the impact would vary between industries and that it was assessing consequences with affected businesses, pledging support on a company-by-company basis and continuing measures introduced in response to American reciprocal tariffs.
Pretoria’s central complaint is procedural: that Washington is moving the goalposts. In a statement issued late on Monday, the dtic said government had already offered additional concessions and was concerned the US was raising issues that had not formed part of negotiations since they began in 2025. It said its proposals went beyond concessions made during a previous trade dispute in 2015 and had been submitted through established negotiating channels, while respecting South Africa’s biosecurity requirements, constitutional obligations and commitments under World Trade Organisation rules.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative was blunter in its framing. “In South Africa, the Trump Administration is deeply concerned by barriers to U.S. trade and investment, corruption, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests,” the office said. Greer’s announcement did not set out specific conditions South Africa would have to meet to retain eligibility, although he said Washington was working to ensure its African partners complied with the programme’s requirements.
AGOA, established in 2000 to promote trade and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa, allows eligible countries to export thousands of products to the US duty-free, provided they meet economic, political and governance requirements. Its loss removes a structural advantage for South African exporters. The government warned that losing the benefits could disrupt established manufacturing supply chains and South African investments in the American economy.
The wider commercial relationship is what Pretoria is emphasising. According to the dtic, bilateral trade reached $28.8 billion in 2025, and more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa support about 134,600 jobs. South Africa also supplies 12 minerals the United States considers critical, along with isotopes used in cancer treatment.
Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said South Africa remained willing to negotiate but that any agreement would require cooperation from Washington. “This decision does not define the broader relationship between South Africa and the United States, however a solution depends on the willingness of both parties to find solutions. At the same time, government will support affected sectors, protect South Africa’s national interests and continue pursuing trade, investment and shared economic opportunities with the United States.”
The US ambassador to South Africa, Leo Brent Bozell, said on X that it was “regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA,” calling it “a predictable and preventable outcome.” He said he remained hopeful a path forward could be found. The government, for its part, said it would accelerate efforts to diversify exports through markets including the European Union, China, India, the United Kingdom and other African countries.
Whether Pretoria can rebuild its preferential footing in Washington, or whether the $28.8 billion relationship holds while exporters pivot to other markets, will define the next chapter of this trade dispute.